Worldsteel expects global steel demand to remain flat in 2026 and increase by 1.7% in 2027, lowering its April outlook for modest growth this year and a 2.2% rise next year. In its October Short Range Outlook, the association attributed almost all of the downgrade to China, while warning that Middle East instability continues to disrupt energy markets.
Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, chair of Worldsteel’s Economics Committee, said the recovery was taking longer than anticipated. Demand outside China is projected to rise by 1.5% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027, with the latter forecast unchanged from April. The outlook uses information available in early September 2026 and remains cautious about economies’ ability to withstand further disruption from the unresolved Middle East conflict.
Chinese steel demand is forecast to fall by 2.0% this year, as property investment continues to weaken and infrastructure investment fails to provide the support previously expected. Export-supported manufacturing growth has been insufficient to compensate. Worldsteel expects the decline to ease to 1.0% in 2027, although trade tensions pose a risk to manufacturing exports.
India remains the fastest-growing major steel market in the forecast. Demand is expected to increase by 7.9% to 172.4 million tonnes in 2026 and by 8.0% to 186.2 million tonnes in 2027. Infrastructure construction leads the expansion, alongside private property development, manufacturing, renewable energy projects and automotive production. Across developing economies excluding China, demand growth is forecast at 1.9% this year and 5.1% next year.
The Gulf faces a sharp reversal, with GCC demand projected to drop by about 11% in 2026 after growing 17.7% in 2025. Worldsteel describes projects as delayed rather than cancelled as security uncertainty postpones awards, construction and financing. Its forecast for an 11.3% rebound in 2027 rests on an optimistic scenario involving reduced uncertainty, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and normalised supply chains.
Developed-market demand is expected to grow by 1.0% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. EU apparent steel use is forecast to fall by 0.3% this year before rising 3.1% next year; Worldsteel said stockbuilding ahead of CBAM’s implementation had helped lift the 2025 result. US demand is projected to grow by 2.0% and approximately 1.5%, respectively, supported by data centres, energy infrastructure and selected manufacturing markets.