European gas prices touched €90/MWh during trading on 20 October, reaching that level for the first time in almost four years before easing by the close, GMK Center reported. Uncertainty over LNG deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz, depleted storage levels and expectations of colder weather helped drive the increase. Analysts cited by the outlet considered a return to €90/MWh possible in the near term.
The market had fluctuated through late September and early October as traders assessed the possibility of a settlement to the Middle East conflict. Front-month TTF contracts closed at €69.4/MWh on 29 September, according to ICE figures reported by GMK Center. Despite that temporary retreat, prices remained supported by interruptions to Norwegian supply, low European inventories and the effective suspension of Qatari LNG shipments through Hormuz.
Lower temperatures and uneven wind and solar generation added to gas demand in early October, although the restoration of Norwegian supplies provided some relief. By the middle of the month, attacks on vessels and threats to energy infrastructure in the Middle East had intensified concerns about LNG availability. Forecasts of a European cold spell towards the end of October added further pressure, leaving short-term contracts particularly responsive to developments in the region.
European gas stores were 74.26% full on 20 October, compared with 82.84% on the equivalent date a year earlier, GMK Center said. Germany’s storage level was 61.2%. The report also noted that periods of mild weather during the month had enabled energy companies to rebuild inventories more quickly than was usual for October, but uncertainty over the return of Persian Gulf LNG kept traders cautious.
Higher Asian LNG prices, which reached their strongest level since 2022, added to the pressure. Citing Bloomberg, GMK Center said European prices remained far below the previous energy crisis peaks, although the latest increase was putting further strain on industry and consumers. Governments had not reinstated price caps or tax reductions. The October jump followed sustained gains in August and September, when European gas prices exceeded €80/MWh at the start of autumn for the first time in three years.