Falling mine output and rising copper consumption are strengthening the outlook for recycled copper, American Recycler reported, citing preliminary International Copper Study Group (ICSG) figures. Secondary refined production from scrap increased by 4.3% globally in the first seven months of 2026, compared with growth of 1% in primary refined output, highlighting the contribution of recycled feedstock as mining supply faces constraints.
The ICSG’s September 2026 Copper Bulletin put global mine production 1% below the corresponding period a year earlier. Concentrate output fell by 2%, partly counterbalanced by a 3.6% increase in solvent extraction-electrowinning production. Among major producers, Chile recorded a 7% decline in mine output, while Indonesian concentrate production dropped by 29%. Production in the Democratic Republic of Congo was broadly flat, with increased solvent extraction-electrowinning output offsetting weaker concentrate production.
Worldwide refined copper production expanded by approximately 1.7%, trailing the 2.4% increase in apparent refined consumption. Chinese demand grew by an estimated 3.5%, against roughly 1% growth elsewhere. China represented about 59% of global refined copper usage, although its net refined imports fell by 10%. American Recycler said that decline increased the importance of domestic supply, including recycled material.
The preliminary refined market balance showed a surplus of around 32,000 tonnes for January-July, down from 157,000 tonnes in the same period of 2025. Adjusting for estimated movements in Chinese bonded stocks produced a deficit of approximately 5,000 tonnes. Exchange inventories nevertheless remained high: combined LME, COMEX and SHFE stocks approached 1 million tonnes at the end of August, up 34% from end-2025 and their highest aggregate level since June 2003.
Prices also offered support for recyclers. The average LME cash price reached $14,353.40 per tonne in August, 6% above July. The year-to-date average through 22 September was $13,395.27 per tonne, approximately 35% above the 2025 annual average. American Recycler said stronger prices and consumption could benefit recyclers as manufacturers and refiners seek secondary supplies to complement constrained mining output. The ICSG figures remain preliminary and may change as further production, consumption and inventory information becomes available.